American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2016 - 103

ConventionCoverage: Ohio Oil & Gas Association
of saying and doing anything necessary
to win a critical election. The thing is, he
admits it, which is refreshing to many
voters. So, it really comes down to the
economy."
Wasserman cited several Gallup polls
that asked whether economic conditions
were getting better or worse. In November
2012, when President Obama ran for reelection, 47 percent of respondents said
better and 48 percent indicated worse.
This year's survey found 39 percent saw
improved conditions and 57 percent possessed a pessimistic outlook, he said.
While many Americans enjoy increasing
wages, he cautioned, there is a general
feeling of anger at the economic recovery's
unevenness.
In addition to capitalizing on economic
unhappiness, Wasserman said Republicans
needed support from more nonwhite voters. In Ronald Reagan's 1980 election,
the white share of the electorate was 88
percent, while in 2012 it was 72 percent,
and it is likely to drop to 70 percent by
November. "Can Trump find a way to rehabilitate his image with Latinos, where
his disapproval rate is 81 percent, or
African Americans, where his disapproval
rate is even higher?" Wasserman asked.
While Clinton seems to have a safe
lead over her opponent for the Democratic
nomination, Senator Bernie Sanders, IVt., is attracting support from younger
voters as well as among Democrats unwilling to see another Clinton in the
White House. Despite her handicaps,
Wasserman predicted Clinton would capture her party's nomination by June.
Time For Change
According to political fundamentals,
the Republicans should capture the White
House easily in November, Wasserman
mused. Most Americans hold strong antidynastic views, see Clinton as an extension
of Obama's term, and desire change, he
said.
Wasserman pointed to an NBC/Wall
Street Journal survey taken at the end of
presidential administrations that asked
voters if they preferred the next president
to retain a predecessor's policies or take
a different approach.
At the end of the Bill Clinton administration in 1999, 44 percent favored the
same approach and 45 percent supported
change. Wasserman pointed out the 2000
election basically ended in a tie.
In 2007, when George W. Bush was
leaving office, 23 percent favored the
president's policies and 71 percent wanted

Ohio Oil & Gas Association
Chairman David Hill (left) poses with David Wasserman,
election analyst for The Cook
Political Report, following
Wasserman's keynote address at the association's
winter meeting in Columbus,
Oh.

a new approach, and Wasserman noted
Obama won handily.
With Obama ending his presidential
term, the 2016 survey shows 30 percent
favor a continuation and 67 percent seek
change. "That argues for a Republican
win. There is just one catch: today's Republican Party is about to detonate a nuclear bomb on itself," Wasserman held.
Trump and his remaining primary opponents-Texas Senator Ted Cruz and
Ohio Governor John Kasich-are fighting
for the 1,237 delegates needed to clench
the GOP nomination. By the end of
March, 65 percent of those delegates will
have been committed, Wasserman said.
He predicted the contest would not end
until June 7 with primaries in California,
New Jersey, Montana, South Dakota and
New Mexico.
"Watch how popular Donald Trump
is in California, because that is going to
decide whether he gets the nomination,"
he forecast.
If no candidate tops the 1,237, Wasserman said, the Republicans will be looking
at a contested convention. He noted that
delegates were committed to their states'
choice only on the first ballot, and were
free to support whomever they wanted in
subsequent votes.
"Theoretically, there are a lot of Trump
delegates who have to vote for him on
the first ballot, but who really do not
want him to be the nominee, especially
if July polls show him losing to Clinton,"
Wasserman projected. "If this goes to a
contested convention, Trump's odds of
winning go way down. But the key also
could be what happens between the end
of the primaries and July. Does Trump
cut deals with delegates to get over the
top?"

Wasserman said 12 states were crucial
to winning the Electoral College, with
Ohio among them. He predicted a Republican defeat if the GOP candidate
could not capture both Ohio and Florida.
Congressional Control
With Trump or Cruz atop the GOP
ticket, Wasserman suggested Republicans
had to worry about losing control of Congress.
"Their worst nightmare is having either
Trump or Cruz as their nominee because
Republicans from red states and districts
have no choice but to endorse Trump.
Republicans in blue states and districts
may have no choice but to renounce him,"
he assessed. "In the House, Republicans
are sitting on their largest majority since
1928, but if it is Trump, anything is possible. I think this pushes many House
races into an unpredictable place."
In the Senate, he said, blue-state Republicans have to keep as far away from
Trump as they can, if he is the nominee.
There are seven Republican Senate seats
up for election in states that Obama won
in 2012, and only one contested Democratic seat in a state that Mitt Romney
won. Ohio Senator Rob Portman is among
the seven, Wasserman observed.
The most vulnerable GOP senators
are Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson
of Wisconsin, Wasserman said, adding
Democrats were likely to gain both seats.❒

Coming In May
The Official Convention Section
for CIP's annual meeting, June 9-12
at the Meritage Resort in Napa, Ca.
APRIL 2016 103

American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2016

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