American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - 41

Outlook 2016
strongly suggest these sectors will add to gas demand growth,
although less for cars.
* Should Canada be successful in constructing new oil
pipelines to the oceans for its oil sands production, I expect another 1 percent growth in North American gas demand each
decade.
* In the more distant future, the opportunity to convert some
natural gas supply into diesel could add another 1 percent growth
to gas requirements.
Our newest industry study providing a North American natural gas forecast to 2050 shows 125 Bcf/d of gas demand by
2050 (34 percent for gas-fired power generation). This represents continental gas demand growth of 50 percent from 2015.

Q:

As 2015 ticked down, producers were eagerly watching Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass terminal in
Louisiana in anticipation of the long-awaited first shipment
of LNG from an export terminal in the continental United States.
Sabine Pass is the first of multiple LNG export facilities scheduled to commence operations over the next few years. How
do you envision LNG exports ultimately impacting the North
American industry? To what degree will LNG demand help rebalance a supply-heavy market? How much price support can

North American producers expect from LNG exports?
GWOZD: I believe LNG exports will become a solid gas
supply growth engine in the decades to come. Interestingly, the
growth of LNG exports from the United States and Canada is
not expected to bump up natural gas prices. The reason is that
the extra gas demand for LNG exports will translate to extra
gas supply requirements. I refer to that as the "action and the
reaction."
World LNG demand has jumped to 35 Bcf/d, up from 20
Bcf/d a decade ago. LNG demand is growing by 1 Bcf/d-2 Bcf/d
each year. Growth could be higher if some countries phased out
coal or nuclear power plants. As a result, LNG exports from
around the world will be needed to provide a geographically
balanced supply portfolio for end-users such as power generators and local distribution companies in the long term.
I do not believe there is a race to get LNG exports on stream;
rather, each LNG supply source has a place in the macro-LNG
portfolio over the next century. One positive aspect of North
American LNG exports is that the price paid for the natural gas
will be a price that ensures producers have an appropriate rate
of return for their shareholders. Otherwise, the gas will wait in
the ground for another generation to consider.
r



American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016

Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Cover1
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Cover2
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Contents
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