American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 47

SpecialReport: Natural Gas Outlook
Express (2 Bcf/d) and Whistler (2 Bcf/d)
completed over the past three years were
more than 90% utilized in 2021. However,
some 6 Bcf/d of regional takeaway
pipeline projects remain on hold while
the market sorts them out.
Demand Drivers
Looking at the power generation sector,
nearly 17 gigawatts of coal capacity are
being retired in 2002 while 10 GWs of
gas-fired units are being added-the biggest
annual capacity shift for each resource
category since 2019.
Looking back at the summer months,
despite much higher Henry Hub prices,
dispatch cost competition between gasfired
and coal-fired generation was tighter
than expected due to rising coal costs.
Higher prices for replacement coal will
keep the competition between coal and gas
tight this winter, especially in the eastern
part of the country where coal prices are
up fivefold year over year. Coal stockpiles
have not recovered despite the strong utilization
of gas-fired generation displacing
coal-fired generation. Given the current
state of the U.S. coal market, coal plant
dispatch is likely to be limited in 2023.
One wild card is the potential for a rail
strike, which may impact coal deliverability.
The estimated weather-normalized
power burn outlook for this winter is 1.9
Bcf/d below last winter, although this decline
largely will be offset by higher industrial
demand and LNG exports. Comparing
this winter with a 2015 baseline, a
gain of 6.8 Bcf/d of long-term structural
demand growth from new combined-cycle
gas units (CCGT) will be offset by a
short-term decline of 3.7 Bcf/d.
Renewables saw major growth in 2022,
with nearly 45 GW of new wind, solar
and battery storage resources. Going forward,
it will be essential to ensure that
gas-fired generators have sufficient infrastructure
to provide the flexibility needed
to accommodate the higher ramping requirements
of the growing number of variable
resources coming on line.
U.S. LNG has become an increasingly
important strategic energy source in Europe
(Figure 4). The percentages of U.S. LNG
cargoes flowing to Europe expanded from
18% in the third quarter of 2021 to more
than 50% in the first quarter of 2022, as
10
8
6
4
FIGURE 4
Bcf/d
South Korea
Japan
Rest of World
12
U.S. LNG Exports by Destination
China
Turkey
Brazil
Europe
2
FIGURE 5
U.S. LNG Capacity Development (Through 2030)
Bcf/d
30
LNG Sabine Pass
LNG Corpus Christi
LNG Freeport
LNG Calcasieu Pass
LNG Golden Pass
LNG Delfin
25
LNG Cove Point
LNG Cameron
LNG Elba Island
LNG Plaquemines
LNG Driftwood
20
15
10
5
-
DECEMBER 2022 47
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2025
2026
2027
2028
2022 Q1
2029
2022 Q2
2030
2021 Q2
2021 Q3
2021 Q4

American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022

Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Intro
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Cover1
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Cover2
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 3
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 4
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 6
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 7
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - 8
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Cover3
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2022 - Cover4
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