American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - 33

Outlook 2016

Q&A: Industry Analysts
See Reasons For Optimism
In 2016 And Beyond
Editor's Note: As the calendar flips, oil and gas companies are not exactly sorry to see
2015 exit stage left. In an industry built on optimism, operators are turning the page to
a new year, hoping to find a fresh outlook with renewed business opportunities in the
months ahead.
Everyone knows the back story: The advent of tight oil and shale gas development ignited
a historic resurgence in domestic activity. But after years of impressive growth in crude oil
output, it appears the tide is turning in dramatic fashion. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration was estimating that by year-end, U.S. crude production would have dropped
500,000 barrels a day since hitting a peak of 9.6 million barrels a day last spring. It forecasts
the loss of another 600,000 bbl/d through the first three quarters of 2016.
U.S. natural gas production has followed a different script, with EIA data showing a yearto-year net increase, at least through third quarter 2015. But with gas rig counts sliding 45
percent since the start of last year and prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange dipping
to multiyear lows at the onset of the winter heating season, there is plenty of head wind
to the industry's ability to continue to ramp up gas production in the new year.
So the stage is set, the actors are in place, and the curtain has been
lifted on 2016. After all the twists and turns that have played on the
national and international stages the past few years, where does the
story line go from here?
The outlook remains as uncertain as ever, but a growing chorus of
voices is starting to see a turnaround on the horizon. From Michael
LaMotte, senior managing director at Guggenheim Securities, to Mark
Papa, a partner at Riverstone Holdings and former chief executive of
EOG Resources, several industry and financial sector experts are
pointing to fundamentals at play that bode well for improved upstream
business conditions down the road.
Accordingly, AOGR presented a series of questions to a panel of
market analysts to get their insights on oil prices, the extent of the U.S.
oil production decline, and prospects for North American natural gas
over the near to intermediate terms. Panelists are Michael Cohen,
director and head of energy commodities research at Barclays in New
York; Jodi Quinnell, manager of crude oil analytics at Genscape Inc. in
Boulder, Co.; and Bill Gwozd, senior vice president, natural gas services,
at HSB Solomon Associates LLC in Calgary.
Questions are in italics, followed by the panelists' responses.
JANUARY 2016 33



American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016

Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Cover1
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Cover2
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2016 - Contents
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