American Oil and Gas Reporter - May 2015 - 41

use of light crude oil by more than 730,000
barrels a day through 2016.
Further, the association advises, if access to new crude oil is not an issue and
economics support increased use of light

oil, the survey respondents-representing
61 percent of U.S. refining capacity-say
they have the capability in place or in
progress to run an additional 800,000
bbl/d.
Ì

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U.S. Net Imports On Pace To
End Under Most EIA Scenarios
WASHINGTON-The Annual Energy
Outlook 2015 released in mid-April by
the U.S. Energy Information Administration says U.S. net energy imports are
on pace to become a thing of the past,
but also indicates that the outlook for
natural gas exports appears sensitive to
oil prices.
AEO2015 offers updated projections
for U.S. energy markets through 2040
according to six scenarios-reference, low
and high economic growth, low and high
oil price, and high oil and gas resource-
for future crude oil prices.
"EIA's AEO2015 shows that the advanced technologies are reshaping the
U.S. energy economy," reflects EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "With continued growth in oil and natural gas production, growth in the use of renewables,
and the application of demand-side efficiencies, the projections show the potential
to eliminate net U.S. energy imports in
the 2020-2030 timeframe. The United
States has been a net importer of energy
since the 1950s. In cases with the highest
supply and lowest demand outlooks, the
United States becomes a significant net
exporter of energy."

Significant Conclusions
EIA highlights a handful of key findings from the analysis. Among them, it
deduces that U.S. net energy imports decline and ultimately end in most AEO2015
cases, driven by U.S. energy production
growth-especially crude oil and natural
gas, increased renewables use, and relatively modest demand growth. Net energy
imports end before 2030 in the AEO2015
reference case and before 2020 in the
high oil price and high oil and gas resource
cases. Significant net energy imports persist only in the low oil price and high
economic growth cases, where U.S. supply
is lower and demand is higher.
EIA also predicts ongoing strong U.S.
crude output will reduce net imports of
petroleum and other liquids. Through
2020, strong growth in domestic crude
oil production from tight formations cuts
into net petroleum imports while expanding product exports in all AEO2015 cases.
The net import share of petroleum and

other liquids products falls from 26 percent
in 2014 to 15 percent in 2025 and then
rises slightly to 17 percent by 2040 in
the reference case. With greater U.S.
crude oil production in the high oil price
and high oil and gas resource cases, the
United States becomes a net petroleum
exporter after 2020.
EIA says it also appears that regional
variations in U.S. crude oil and natural gas
production can force significant shifts in
crude oil and natural gas flows between regions of the country, requiring investment
in or realignment of pipelines and other
midstream infrastructure. In most AEO2015
cases, lower-48 crude oil production shows
the strongest growth in the Dakotas/Rocky
Mountains, followed by the Southwest.
Natural gas production grows the most in
the East, followed by the Gulf Coast onshore
and the Dakotas/Rocky Mountains. Interregional flows to serve downstream markets
vary significantly among the cases.
Technology and policy are likely to
slow U.S. energy demand growth, EIA
predicts. U.S. energy use grows 0.3
percent a year from 2013 through 2040
in the reference case, far below the annual
rates of economic growth (2.4 percent)
and population growth (0.7 percent). Decreases in transportation and residential
sector energy consumption partially offset
growth in other sectors, EIA says, and
declining energy use reflects more energy-efficient technologies as well as the
effect of public policies. Fuel economy
standards and changing driver behavior
keep motor gasoline consumption below
recent levels through 2040 in the reference
case.
EIA also says renewables will meet
much of the growth in electricity demand.
The agency attributes this to rising longterm natural gas prices, the high capital
costs of new coal and nuclear generation
capacity, state-level policies, and cost reductions for renewable generation in a
market characterized by relatively slow
electricity demand growth.
Furthermore, EIA projects, energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions will stabilize below 2005 levels with improvements in energy and the carbon intensity
of electricity generation. Improved end-

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MAY 2015 41

American Oil and Gas Reporter - May 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - May 2015